Of Course Ron DeSantis Will Not be the GOP Nominee
Why the media got it so wrong, plus a change in the weather.
Today marks the debut of Connecting the Dots, a recurring column that will appear regularly in the Bay Area Navigator. Today we’ll look at why the media got it so wrong about Ron DeSantis. But first, the day’s news, and a word from our sponsor.
TODAY’S SPONSOR
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BRIEFS
Mental Illness Clubhouse: The Agency for Community Treatment Services and Hillsborough County has a new Clubhouse to help people with mental illness as of Oct. 12. The ACTS Clubhouse, 201 E. Yukon St., Tampa, includes employment and technology training areas and a kitchen for members. Anyone 18 or older with a mental illness can become a member and receive support in acquiring and keeping affordable housing and accessing mental health services, government disability benefits, and other services they may need. The membership model is designed to help members find employment through job training as well as learning life skills.
CURRENTS
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BAY AREA
Tampa Bay could get severe weather, flooding today from Gulf system. Tampa Bay Times $ (subscription required)
Another cold front is on the way this weekend. Spectrum Bay News 9
Details of Hillsborough School Unions’ tentative agreements with district. Patch
BayCare announces plans to replace St. Joseph's Children's Hospital. WUSF
600 apartments become first local project to move forward under act designed to address housing shortage. Tampa Bay Business Journal $
Palestinian and Israel supporters clash in Tampa Bay. Axios
Brightline rail expansion in Florida: “Tampa’s the next big market for us”. That’s So Tampa
TPA celebrates the launch of three new nonstop flights, including one to San Diego. That’s So Tampa
Neighbors brainstorm with VisionZero leaders to help prevent traffic crashes on two deadly roadways in Tampa. 10 Tampa Bay
ZooTampa announces new attractions opening in 2024, including a new Aussie Trek ride. Creative Loafing
These four Tampa Bay residents make Forbes' 400 richest people in America List. Tampa Bay Business Journal $
ZooTampa celebrates baby endangered white rhino's birth. Patch
Major Tampa music festival not returning in 2024. QYK
Johansson wins in debut, Lightning beat Predators 5-3. ABC Action News
How olympic medalist Leandro Vissotto fits well into USF volleyball’s vision. The Oracle
FLORIDA
DeSantis administration caves on COVID statistics, agrees to massive data dump. Florida Phoenix
Florida Republicans say they likely won't focus on property insurance crisis during upcoming session. Creative Loafing
Proposed historic drop in Florida workers’ comp rate draws concern. InsuranceNewsNet
Ex-Chilean soldier accused of killing folk singer is arrested in Florida. The New York Times $
Report says better management needed for Florida's wastewater. The Center Square
Only one Florida school district still recognizes Columbus Day. Florida Phoenix
DeSantis floats Florida-based sanctions against Iran. Politico
New study finds Florida’s interior trends to Bbe “shabby chic”. QYK
Disney raises prices at its theme parks. The Wall Street Journal $
How does 2023 FSU football compare to Seminoles’ national title teams? Tampa Bay Times $
POLITICS
Moody pushes back on abortion-rights initiative; Florida Supreme Court to vet language for the ballot. Florida Phoenix
Controversial judicial circuit merging plan to be discussed in private meetings. WMNF
Would legislature eliminate a three-day mandatory waiting period to purchase a firearm? Florida Phoenix
Pot giant Trulieve spends another $500,000 to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida. Creative Loafing
Is Mar-a-Lago worth $1 billion? Trump's winter home valuations are at the core of his fraud trial. Spectrum Bay News 9
DeSantis administration fights allegations over Medicaid redeterminations. WUSF
DeSantis amps up attacks on Trump, as G.O.P. primary enters a new phase. The New York Times $
Donald Trump campaign accuses Ron DeSantis of ‘mental breakdown’ for slating MSNBC hit. Florida Politics
Oddsmakers say Nikki Haley now a better general election bet than Ron DeSantis. Florida Politics
CONNECTING THE DOTS
COLUMN: What the Media Gets Wrong About DeSantis and Trump
By Stephen Buel
Of course Ron DeSantis won’t be your 2024 Republican nominee for president. One reason is his aloofness, and the extent to which his campaign is based primarily upon grievance. But the point of today’s exercise is not to bury our unhuggable governor; the media herd is already doing a fine job of that.
Another reason DeSantis For President is going nowhere in 2024 is Donald Trump’s extraordinarily durable grip on the GOP. And, really, what else need be said about that?
Today’s topic is the other reason DeSantis will get no closer to Joe Biden than when he debates California Governor Gavin Newsom in a made-for-TV stunt next month.
About nine years ago, the media was briefly certain that Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky would be your 2016 GOP nominee. Then it turned around and anointed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as the inevitable victor. Of course, Elizabeth Warren had the Democratic nomination in the bag back in 2020, just like Hillary Clinton was going to trounce Barack Obama in 2008. And remember Howard Dean’s inevitability, back in 2004?
Fact is, the media is usually wrong when it comes to picking nominees. That’s because reporters are obsessed with politics, while voters are focused on what I’ll loosely call “character.”
Republican voters prefer familiar faces who have already been around the block a time or two. Romney, McCain, Dole, Daddy Bush, and Reagan all sought and lost the nomination before they eventually won it. Former Vice President Nixon actually lost the presidency to JFK eight years before he ran again and defeated Former VP Humphrey. The exceptions to this rule in my lifetime were already brand names: Ford was VP, W was a president’s son, and Trump was, well, you know. You’ve got to go all the way back to 1964 to find a newbie, Barry Goldwater. By the way, he lost the presidency in a rout.
Democrats, on the other hand, are the party of fresh faces. Obama, Kerry, Bill Clinton, Dukakis, Carter, McGovern, and Kennedy were all first-timers. The exceptions were all VPs or first ladies: Biden, Hillary, Gore, Mondale, Humphrey, LBJ. Ninteen fifty-six was the last time a familiar Democrat didn’t ascend to the nomination by serving in a presidential administration. And just like Goldwater, Adlai Stevenson got schooled.
Bringing this back to the 2024, what could be more familiar and thus more inevitable than a GOP candidate who has already run for president twice and actually held the office once? Donald Trump thus possesses the ultimate GOP credentials despite his litany of character flaws and obvious unworthiness for the job.
Sure, Trump was a self-centered tool from the very moment we first met him. He slapped his name in gold on everything and married glamorous Europeans just to make himself look dashing. But for four decades, the media built his brand. Tabloid newspaper covers, TV gossip shows, and a reality show where the whole point of the endeavor was for Trump to fire someone. Eight days before voters propelled him to the White House in 2016, the reliably liberal New York Magazine noted all the times a Trump had appeared on its cover: “Eleven Donalds, three Ivanas, one Marla, one Melania.” You can’t pay for that sort of familiarity.
But because the political media didn’t understand the true basis of Trump’s appeal, once it deemed him unworthy of the job, it immediately set out to discredit his politics.
Let me not sound sympathetic to Trump here because I’m not. But let’s give the man some credit for the many viable ideas underlying his mean-spirited politics. In a nation based on laws, our nation should not turn a blind eye to the violation of its immigration laws. Our allies should spend more money on their own defense. The offshoring of American manufacturing poses certain risks to the nation. America’s costly foreign wars were often misguided. Globalism at times threatens a country’s legitimate national interests. China’s ambitions collide with our own. The president should keep the interests of working people close to his heart. (Mind you, I am not saying Trump delivered on these ideas.)
These are not only reasonable ideas but positions that Trump’s Democratic successor has largely adopted — though only briefly in the case of immigration.
Which brings us back to Ron DeSantis. Given his disdain for the media dogpack, it’s ironic that he has repeated its mistake of viewing politics and not personality as the root of Trump’s appeal. DeSantis became the media’s front-runner because his politics out-MAGA even Trump. But now we see that DeSantis is not the voters’ front-runner because they see his absence of Trumpian charisma. Florida is a large media market where DeSantis can hide his prickly personality behind slick advertising. Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina are states where voters hope to shake your hand at the county fair.
That’s why our combative and still relatively unknown governor will not be winning this year’s GOP nomination. But don’t assume that Ron DeSantis is down and out. Failing to become the GOP nominee on your first try is the single greatest predictor that you’ll eventually succeed.